TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF DENGUE CASES at BGHMC FROM YEAR 2011 to JULY 29, 2016

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF DENGUE CASES at BGHMC FROM YEAR 2011 to JULY 29, 2016

Purpose of the report: To describe the Time table and analyzed the series of dengue cases who were admitted and discharge at BGHMC

Scope of the cases: The data adopted in this study are patients who were diagnose to have contracted the dengue virus as primary diagnosis upon discharge from the year 2011 to July 29, 2016.

Table 1. Monthly discharges of dengue cases from Year 2011 to July 29, 2016

Year/Month	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
January	15	8	19	9	29	81
February	11	8	14	3	7	55
March	9	4	9	3	7	32
April	7	6	11	6	3	34
May	8	22	30	6	11	88
June	25	98	180	14	38	215
July	72	141	288	38	113	285
August	180	71	285	36	223
September	90	43	172	34	136
October	25	44	71	18	108
November	19	36	47	26	77
December	12	43	35	42	59
Total	473	524	1161	235	811	790

From the data obtained from the Mortality and Morbidity Spreadsheet shows that the peak cases were during the year 2013 from with 1161 cases, while the year 2016 have a total of 790 cases as of July 29, 2016 which have a high probability to increase on the succeeding months since it was observed in the table that June to November have high number of dengue cases usually during the wet season. The data might suggest that there is a seasonality of dengue cases every 3 years.  

However to describe the series of this dengue case time series analysis should be done to have an Idea about the trend, and the future increase of this dreaded disease as illustrated below.

Figure 1. Time series plot of Dengue Cases From year 2011 to July 29, 2016

Figure 1 shows the time series plot of dengue cases from 2011  to July 29, 2016 wherein we can see a lot of spikes which would suggest a seasonality per month, however some of the spikes or its peak are quite higher than the other months suggesting that unusual increase of dengue discharges. Those unusual graph where seen during the months of 31-34 and 65-67 which are on the months of July to October 2013 and May to July 2016. 

Due to irregular increase and decrease of dengue cases monthly it’s hard to forecastfor the next few months. However smoothening and other techniques the Figure below give a rough forecast for the next 6 months.

From table 2 and figure 2 denotes an increase for the next 5 months if the data would have same flow or in normal circumstance. The peak may be seen during the month of October and November and hopefully would decline during the end of the month till the dry season.

Figure 2.Time Series Forecast for the Next Month

Table 2 Rough forecast of dengue cases

Forecast Value
From	To	Month	Year
129	265	August	2016
100	237	September	2016
132	270	October	2016
169	308	November	2016
148	288	December	2016

Conclusion:

Dengue fever cases have a significant increase this year comparing last year.

The viral disease might have yearly seasonal characteristics every three years aside from the monthly seasonality which often increases during the wet season.

The viraldisease would continually increase until the end of the month unless there would be an intervention.

Darius T. Muñoz

HIMO (July 29, 2016)

Data are not to be used as educational purposes

Consent is needed

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ALONE

Sometimes not all Jokes are funny; they can also stir someone’s emotion to light the lonely past. The horror, the pain the dark and gloomy experience which everyone wants to forget.  A day become weeks, weeks become months and suddenly it is almost a year. A tear keep falling, feet keeps stumping, and heads keeps nodding asking why a heavy heart have much pain. If only all bad memories could be kept on a sackcloth and bury under the ground or under a deep blue sea then preferably all these mystery are just a memoirs from the past. However, in reality it is just a fantasy.

It all started when one friend did something unbearable, breaks some rules that nearly breaks my faith. The trusts you give diminish, then another trusted friend aggravated the pain that you are managing to ease. You need a fresh air, you need to breathe, you need to get out of that room or else to gonna burn. You need to find your comfort stone your dwelling place, enable lighten the heavy feeling, let anger subsides so that it will not turn into hate because after all they are part of your fragile life.

Hastily you need a plan a strategic planning as they say at the office. Then mingling with other crowds is one of a selfish idea to ease the pain. Bar after bar, station after station. One drinks then booze, play and another fight. Sudden joy comes in a short period of hour, night or day. Afterwards after all the gimmicks, the barhopping, food tripping, the camping you find yourself all ALONE. The cycle tries another round, one booze, wine, play, fight and have a good time all ALONE. Then at one point, you realize the answer, the antidote, the medicine of this ill-fated loneliness.

After those time all you need is to have FAITH, and be Happy in everything you do, ALONE or with somebody. Little by little, one-step into another, gradually the past is just a glimpse of memory. Happy days, good time and peace of mind are at hand.

Then suddenly a few words by a good friend unintentionally stirs the emotion and reflects the past. All the burden, the pain the memories that you put on the sackcloth is not being buried after all. It is just hanging through a single treed, ready to hurt and pound you again because it is just above your head. 

I do not want to go through that painful road again, as for me I need to solve it ALONE. And finding a solitude is a long ride and I have to do it all ALONE..

C’mon just a Crazy Thought, Insanity comes all the time. Call me Crazy if you want. But mind you the pain is not that hurtful if I don’t care, If  I don’t cherish ,If I don’t have an affection to the friendship that we had. Teardrop flows on my cheeks again, my feet keeps on stumping hardly, my head node against a solid wall, hopping by tomorrow a gentle hands would held me up.... and I will never be ALONE again...

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