Friday, September 22, 2017

Does Jehovah Assess in Advance How Much Pressure We Can Bear and Then Choose the Trials We Will Face?

Almost all of us if not all of us faced problems, trails and pressures and it is so painful, devastating and hurtful isn’t it? For example let us consider a plea of one Brother whose son committed a suicide he asked: Did Jehovah assess in advance that my wife and I would be capable of enduring our son’s suicide? Did it happen because God had determined that we could endure it?’ Is there sound reason to believe that Jehovah maneuvers the events of our lives in such specific ways?”
Such an outburst of negative emotions. But we should not be surprised at what bereaved ones may at first say. Remember, they may be feeling guilty and angry. This would take great insight and compassion on our part not to respond with irritation.
As a respond to the brother’s plea if our Loving God Jehovah Assess in Advance How Much Pressure We Can Bear and Then Choose the Trials We Will Face, let us consider Paul’s word recorded at 1 Corinthians 10:13,  “ No temptation has come upon you except what is common to men. But God is faithful, and he will not let you be tempted beyond what you can bear, but along with the temptation he will also make the way out so that you may be able to endure it.

How, then, are we to understand Paul’s words: “God . . . will not let you be tempted beyond what you can bear”? Paul here describes what Jehovah does.., not beforebut during trials. The apostle’s words assure us that no matter what trials may arise in our life, Jehovah will sustain us if we trust in him. (Ps. 55:22) These comforting words are based on two fundamental truths.

First, the trials we face are “common to men.” Our trials, then, are common to human experience. Such trials are not beyond our capacity to bear—provided we rely on God. (1 Pet. 5:8, 9) Second, God is faithful.” The record of God’s dealings with his people demonstrates that he gives his loyal love to “those who love him and keep his commandments.” (Deut. 7:9) That record also shows that God always keeps his promises. (Josh. 23:14) In view of his past record of faithfulness, those who love him and obey him can trust that he will keep this twofold promise regarding trials they may face: (1) He will not allow any trial to develop to a point that would make it impossible to bear, and (2) “he will . . . make the way out” for them.

Thus we can derive from  Paul’s words recorded at 1 Corinthians 10:13 leads us to this conclusion: There is no Scriptural reason to believe that Jehovah assesses in advance what we can bear and then, chooses which trials will befall us.


Now Let us consider four reasons why we experience pressures trails and pain.

First, Jehovah gave humans the gift of free will- If we choose the right course, we can look to Jehovah to guide our steps. (Prov. 16:9) But if we choose a wrong course, we will have to face the consequences. (Gal. 6:7)
Second, Jehovah does not shield us from “time and unexpected events.” (Eccl. 9:11) Tragic accidents—perhaps with dire consequences—may occur because we are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Is it not unreasonable to think that God would determine in advance who lives and who dies as a result of random events?

Third, each one of us is personally involved in the issue of integrity. Recall that Satan has challenged the integrity of all those serving Jehovah, claiming that we would not remain loyal to Jehovah when exposed to trials.
Fourth, Jehovah does not have to foreknow everything that happens to us. The idea that God chooses beforehand which trials we will face implies that he must know everything about our future. But such a view is not Scriptural. God certainly can foreknow the future. (Isa. 46:10) But the Bible shows that he is selective when it comes to foreknowing future events. (Gen. 18:20, 21; 22:12) He thus balances his power of foreknowledge with his respect for our free will. Is that not what we would expect from the God who values our freedom and who always exercises his attributes in perfect balance?—Deut. 32:4; 2 Cor. 3:17.

As a conclusion our Loving God Jehovah Does Not Assess in Advance How Much Pressure We Can Bear and Then Choose the Trials We Will Face?  Hence when under trial we should turn to our congregation which is a source of great comfort, look for comfort from the scriptures, seek the loving guidance from Christ Jesus and most of all rely to Jehovah who is the God of all comfort.


Part 9/21/17 jw.org
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Sunday, July 31, 2016

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF DENGUE CASES at BGHMC FROM YEAR 2011 to JULY 29, 2016

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF DENGUE CASES at BGHMC FROM YEAR 2011 to JULY 29, 2016

Purpose of the report: To describe the Time table and analyzed the series of dengue cases who were admitted and discharge at BGHMC

Scope of the cases: The data adopted in this study are patients who were diagnose to have contracted the dengue virus as primary diagnosis upon discharge from the year 2011 to July 29, 2016.

Table 1. Monthly discharges of dengue cases from Year 2011 to July 29, 2016
Year/Month
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
January
15
8
19
9
29
81
February
11
8
14
3
7
55
March
9
4
9
3
7
32
April
7
6
11
6
3
34
May
8
22
30
6
11
88
June
25
98
180
14
38
215
July
72
141
288
38
113
285
August
180
71
285
36
223

September
90
43
172
34
136

October
25
44
71
18
108

November
19
36
47
26
77

December
12
43
35
42
59

Total
473
524
1161
235
811
790

From the data obtained from the Mortality and Morbidity Spreadsheet shows that the peak cases were during the year 2013 from with 1161 cases, while the year 2016 have a total of 790 cases as of July 29, 2016 which have a high probability to increase on the succeeding months since it was observed in the table that June to November have high number of dengue cases usually during the wet season. The data might suggest that there is a seasonality of dengue cases every 3 years.  
However to describe the series of this dengue case time series analysis should be done to have an Idea about the trend, and the future increase of this dreaded disease as illustrated below.
Figure 1. Time series plot of Dengue Cases From year 2011 to July 29, 2016
Figure 1 shows the time series plot of dengue cases from 2011  to July 29, 2016 wherein we can see a lot of spikes which would suggest a seasonality per month, however some of the spikes or its peak are quite higher than the other months suggesting that unusual increase of dengue discharges. Those unusual graph where seen during the months of 31-34 and 65-67 which are on the months of July to October 2013 and May to July 2016. 

Due to irregular increase and decrease of dengue cases monthly it’s hard to forecastfor the next few months. However smoothening and other techniques the Figure below give a rough forecast for the next 6 months.
From table 2 and figure 2 denotes an increase for the next 5 months if the data would have same flow or in normal circumstance. The peak may be seen during the month of October and November and hopefully would decline during the end of the month till the dry season.
Figure 2.Time Series Forecast for the Next Month


Table 2 Rough forecast of dengue cases

Forecast Value
From
To
Month
Year
129
265
August
2016
100
237
September
2016
132
270
October
2016
169
308
November
2016
148
288
December
2016

Conclusion:
Dengue fever cases have a significant increase this year comparing last year.
The viral disease might have yearly seasonal characteristics every three years aside from the monthly seasonality which often increases during the wet season.
The viraldisease would continually increase until the end of the month unless there would be an intervention.


Darius T. Muñoz
HIMO (July 29, 2016)
Data are not to be used as educational purposes
Consent is needed


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Thursday, January 21, 2016

ALONE

Sometimes not all Jokes are funny; they can also stir someone’s emotion to light the lonely past. The horror, the pain the dark and gloomy experience which everyone wants to forget.  A day become weeks, weeks become months and suddenly it is almost a year. A tear keep falling, feet keeps stumping, and heads keeps nodding asking why a heavy heart have much pain. If only all bad memories could be kept on a sackcloth and bury under the ground or under a deep blue sea then preferably all these mystery are just a memoirs from the past. However, in reality it is just a fantasy.

It all started when one friend did something unbearable, breaks some rules that nearly breaks my faith. The trusts you give diminish, then another trusted friend aggravated the pain that you are managing to ease. You need a fresh air, you need to breathe, you need to get out of that room or else to gonna burn. You need to find your comfort stone your dwelling place, enable lighten the heavy feeling, let anger subsides so that it will not turn into hate because after all they are part of your fragile life.
Hastily you need a plan a strategic planning as they say at the office. Then mingling with other crowds is one of a selfish idea to ease the pain. Bar after bar, station after station. One drinks then booze, play and another fight. Sudden joy comes in a short period of hour, night or day. Afterwards after all the gimmicks, the barhopping, food tripping, the camping you find yourself all ALONE. The cycle tries another round, one booze, wine, play, fight and have a good time all ALONE. Then at one point, you realize the answer, the antidote, the medicine of this ill-fated loneliness.

After those time all you need is to have FAITH, and be Happy in everything you do, ALONE or with somebody. Little by little, one-step into another, gradually the past is just a glimpse of memory. Happy days, good time and peace of mind are at hand.

Then suddenly a few words by a good friend unintentionally stirs the emotion and reflects the past. All the burden, the pain the memories that you put on the sackcloth is not being buried after all. It is just hanging through a single treed, ready to hurt and pound you again because it is just above your head. 

I do not want to go through that painful road again, as for me I need to solve it ALONE. And finding a solitude is a long ride and I have to do it all ALONE..


C’mon just a Crazy Thought, Insanity comes all the time. Call me Crazy if you want. But mind you the pain is not that hurtful if I don’t care, If  I don’t cherish ,If I don’t have an affection to the friendship that we had. Teardrop flows on my cheeks again, my feet keeps on stumping hardly, my head node against a solid wall, hopping by tomorrow a gentle hands would held me up.... and I will never be ALONE again...
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Sunday, August 2, 2015

Good bye To My Friend Norman

Last July 27,2015 I received a text from my  adviser Maam Itchu, she said Norman  one of my colleges passed away due to his sickness. I was caught unaware I though she would say thank you for the Data that I gave but a sad news is quite lonesome. Norman K Cua-at can be my childhood friend because I once live in the same baranggay Lubas, La Trinidad  for quite some years, we play text cards slide on the street and jump on a nearby water creek. After several years we meet again but as a schoolmate, he was in his 3rd year high school while I am a 4th year transferee  in Benguet National High School. He was a talented young guy and he excel in class especially in Math, no wonder they won a Math contest or math Olympiad. On our tertiary days I was not surprise that we have same Course BS Applied Statistics,  Collage life is a exciting days. I don not know if BS Applied Statistics is his first choice but I do know that as for me BS Applied Statistics is my Wanderers choice, because  I applied for BS Secondary Education as my first choice of course  then when I am about to get my rating to the Deans Office I was being Intimidated because the Dean  is strict looking (dean Garin ) so I decided to transfer.While we enjoy Collage life I notice Norman is mostly a follower than    a leader because whatever direction his batch-mate say he religiously follow. That is when I am impress by his humbleness, no arrogance just a simple school boy. After Collage then that is the time that everything falls upside down I always falls short after him. He is a diligent persona and took Professional Education and Masters Degree for a quite some time and have a job that can be proud of as an instructor in our prestigious school Benguet State University,.. I could still remember when he is taking his masteral thesis, He contacted me and asked for help from which I am so humbled and say "I am just a BS graduate and that is Masteral" but he says "you are a manipulative guy and I know you can Do it and least you have an Idea on it ". The trust that  he gave me is what impressed me most  yes I can say that I am a manipulative guy because during collage I play poker while He do not but when I explained that all great statisticians are gamblers then he give a try to play cards, but that is just a past time not a career path. By 2011 must be the hard day for Him dark clouds cover his bright sky and a huge rock is to much for him to carry.That is the time when He found out that he have a fathomable disease Brain Tumor that turns out to be Brain Cancer. However from the ill fated disease I saw the strength that every man should have. I saw a man, a leader and  a good source of endurance when a hard situation come in our way. The spirit which can split our soul and a fighter in every way even to our greatest adversary DEATH. Then I received the massage from our former mentor Death defeated him. These can be a tragedy for all of us, but can be a source of strength for those struggling, and fearing our Creator. As one visitor during the wake says that we should remember our Creator during our youthful years and  strive to do his will. As for Norman says if he live or die he is with God. And as for me though we are in pain today and mourn because of  death  there would be a time that God will wipe our every tear from our eyes and Death will be no more, neither will mourning nor outcry nor pain nor pain be anymore (Revelation 21.:4) During the last day of Norman's wake I saw a lot of people they could be his family, friends, teachers, or just an acquaintance, these proves how good and kind He was. And  I went there not only for Him but also I came to give strength the His Family  signifying that there is a significant difference being Norman. TO NORMAN GOODBYE and THANK YOU !!!
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Tuesday, July 7, 2015

TRIP TO MIMOSA CLARK, PAMPANGA


From the City of Pines to Clark, Pampanga  is quite a long journey. If you have your own vehicle take the North Express way if you reached Pangasinan and TPlex going to your destination in Clark area, that would take you around 3 hrs. While if you took the Public Bus in Gov. Pack Road at the top of Session Road; going to Dau, Mabalacat, Pampanga and take Jeepney to the main gate and hire a private car going inside the closed recreational park. Or if you do know the large oval there is a huge gate and you can peep and you are now at the back of Holiday Inn. 
First Stop HOLIDAY Inn
A seven story hotel after entering the gate; the atmosphere is quite impressive ; and the foods are raging from 599 PHp above ; with a swimming pool and a card key.

What's Inside the Room


32 inches Cable TV but if you want a non stop Selection Movies try it for 99 Php 
Note: the cabinet below the TV has the refrigerator and the blower.

Complete Shower Supply; yeah that is complete and enough for BOys
The Soft bed for two fully air condition and neat clean and cozy; and reminders to be more environmental are being posted everywhere
Just got caught about this artworks these are not paintings, they are pictures gasem man .



That is good enough for a hotel inside a historical place lets try to explore what is inside MIMOSA


The Academy Lane, I tough it was a school; but that is just before the American Era. Now a business lane of bungalow houses for transient or as vacation houses.

 Pub House Drink




Grill steak Foods

Korean Dish - Food


And Whoaaaaaaa!!!! Aside from Casino Outside the Compound there is also a Casino In this place. Hopping this would not Happen in  Camp John Hay Baguio City







My camera do not like the view of the CASINO house
Now the real thing MIMOSA  Golf and Country Club, now I enjoy the view










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